In the four years it's been given, a pattern has emerged in the voting for the Orange Rising Star award.
An industry jury selects the five nominees -- not newcomers, but young actors from anywhere in the world with a solid body of work. The winner is voted by the public, via cellphone or the Internet. The teen-oriented technology favors whichever nominee has appeared in the biggest hit that year.
This year, Kristen Stewart fits the profile perfectly. She's the star of the sizzling-hot "Twilight" franchise, and has several significant credits besides, going back to her work as a child actress.
The Orange Rising Star isn't actually a BAFTA, although it's handed out during the British Academy Film Awards ceremony. The giveaway is that the mask isn't bronze like a real BAFTA but Perspex.
The award was created at the behest of its sponsor, the cellphone giant Orange, to give its young customers the chance to vote for a winner. It was designed as a memorial for the casting director Mary Selway.
In the past, James McAvoy won after "The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe," Eva Green after "Casino Royale" and Shia LaBeouf after "Transformers." Last year, Noel Clarke's fanbase from "Adulthood" and TV's "Doctor Who" trumped the higher Hollywood profile of Michael Cera.
Another performer who fits the bill is Nicholas Hoult -- not because of his soulful cameo in "A Single Man" but rather his cult teen TV series "Skins."
The arthouse profile of "An Education" gives Carey Mulligan a better chance for the lead actress BAFTA than for the Orange kudo. Jesse Eisenberg is also popular coming off his roles in "Zombieland" and "Adventureland" (alongside Stewart). Tahir Rahim, the lead in French pic "A Prophet," is a dark horse in the race.